* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982013 07/23/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 37 42 49 51 52 50 47 44 42 41 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 37 42 49 51 52 50 47 44 42 41 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 30 32 35 42 48 50 50 48 46 45 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 20 17 11 5 6 12 18 22 27 23 24 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -3 -3 -1 2 3 6 7 3 0 -4 -2 -7 SHEAR DIR 48 51 59 66 37 322 242 255 248 260 265 273 264 SST (C) 27.0 26.6 26.4 26.4 26.5 25.7 25.1 25.3 25.9 26.4 26.8 27.1 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 126 121 119 119 121 114 109 111 115 120 124 127 130 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 119 117 118 121 113 107 108 111 114 116 118 121 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.4 -54.0 -53.5 -53.8 -53.9 -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -54.5 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 6 7 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 73 75 74 73 74 71 68 63 59 56 53 53 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 9 9 11 10 10 8 8 6 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 25 24 30 24 21 25 40 24 4 -29 -25 -28 -23 200 MB DIV 90 67 56 48 36 21 21 21 -2 -8 -16 -2 0 700-850 TADV -3 -8 -4 0 -1 4 13 21 32 29 17 15 12 LAND (KM) 486 595 708 842 983 1331 1727 2143 2082 1962 1884 1668 1396 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.7 13.0 13.5 14.0 15.4 17.0 18.4 19.8 20.7 21.5 22.0 22.3 LONG(DEG W) 21.3 22.6 23.8 25.2 26.6 29.9 33.5 37.3 40.8 44.2 47.3 50.2 53.0 STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 13 14 16 18 19 19 17 16 14 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 5 7 3 1 0 0 0 0 2 3 1 5 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 430 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 15. 20. 23. 26. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 3. 0. -3. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -15. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 1. 1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 17. 25. 26. 27. 25. 22. 19. 17. 16. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982013 INVEST 07/23/13 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982013 INVEST 07/23/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED