* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982013 07/22/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 38 44 48 49 48 44 42 41 40 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 38 44 48 49 48 44 42 41 40 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 36 40 43 43 41 39 38 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 15 15 9 3 10 16 18 22 23 24 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 1 0 0 9 5 6 9 2 2 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 45 50 52 50 77 281 239 248 235 247 256 262 259 SST (C) 27.9 27.3 26.8 26.3 26.2 26.2 25.1 25.3 25.8 26.4 26.8 27.1 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 136 129 124 119 118 119 109 111 115 120 124 127 131 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 129 124 118 118 120 108 110 112 116 119 121 124 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.8 -54.2 -53.9 -53.4 -53.9 -53.3 -53.9 -53.6 -53.9 -54.1 -54.2 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 4 3 3 3 4 4 5 6 7 8 8 10 700-500 MB RH 75 76 74 72 71 72 68 64 61 56 53 51 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 10 10 11 10 12 11 12 9 7 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 12 21 10 15 21 22 38 37 11 -16 -32 -35 -50 200 MB DIV 107 90 69 47 46 35 27 27 10 4 -9 -5 13 700-850 TADV 0 -4 -7 -6 3 2 10 16 31 20 26 29 16 LAND (KM) 227 373 495 632 785 1149 1572 2010 2062 1903 1801 1587 1295 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.5 12.8 13.3 13.7 14.9 16.4 17.7 19.0 19.8 20.5 21.0 21.6 LONG(DEG W) 18.9 20.3 21.6 23.2 24.7 28.2 32.1 36.1 40.1 43.7 47.2 50.6 53.8 STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 15 16 17 19 20 20 19 17 16 16 15 HEAT CONTENT 12 6 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 534 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 10. 16. 20. 24. 26. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 6. 4. 2. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -3. -4. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 19. 23. 24. 23. 19. 17. 16. 15. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982013 INVEST 07/22/13 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982013 INVEST 07/22/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED