* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982013 07/22/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 24 27 31 36 40 41 40 36 34 33 32 V (KT) LAND 20 21 24 27 31 36 40 41 40 36 34 33 32 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 26 29 31 32 31 29 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 15 15 15 2 6 15 19 21 23 25 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 4 6 4 2 4 7 4 6 7 2 0 -6 SHEAR DIR 79 74 62 66 70 164 249 246 258 264 271 269 272 SST (C) 28.7 28.1 27.4 26.5 26.0 26.0 25.1 25.0 25.6 26.1 26.6 27.0 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 148 140 131 121 116 117 109 109 113 117 122 126 129 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 141 131 121 116 117 109 107 111 112 115 117 120 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.2 -53.6 -53.9 -53.8 -53.4 -53.7 -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -54.0 -54.1 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 3 3 3 3 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 700-500 MB RH 74 74 74 72 72 69 69 66 60 55 56 55 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 9 9 8 9 8 9 9 9 7 6 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR -3 10 19 13 14 20 27 33 1 -29 -56 -60 -67 200 MB DIV 50 97 88 72 63 26 14 16 0 -11 -4 -13 0 700-850 TADV 7 1 -5 -3 1 14 12 14 21 42 32 26 21 LAND (KM) 32 189 316 459 619 988 1416 1860 2216 2089 1995 1808 1520 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 13.0 13.3 13.7 14.0 15.1 16.7 18.2 19.7 21.0 21.8 22.4 22.8 LONG(DEG W) 17.1 18.6 20.0 21.6 23.2 26.7 30.6 34.6 38.7 42.4 45.8 48.9 51.9 STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 15 16 17 19 20 21 20 17 16 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 13 15 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 6. 3. 1. -1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -14. -16. -16. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 11. 16. 20. 21. 20. 16. 14. 13. 12. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982013 INVEST 07/22/13 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982013 INVEST 07/22/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED