* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982012 10/12/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 38 41 48 55 59 58 55 58 57 58 V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 38 41 48 55 59 58 55 58 57 58 V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 37 37 37 37 38 40 40 39 38 38 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 22 22 20 17 16 18 15 27 30 36 35 41 55 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 6 3 -1 1 2 4 4 3 5 6 9 12 SHEAR DIR 233 223 221 241 228 240 246 240 243 245 211 206 225 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.2 28.2 26.9 25.8 18.3 POT. INT. (KT) 161 159 158 157 158 158 160 160 156 143 129 119 82 ADJ. POT. INT. 160 156 153 149 150 148 147 146 144 133 122 112 78 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -52.3 -52.6 -51.8 -51.8 -51.6 -51.8 -51.2 -50.7 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 7 7 7 8 6 4 0 700-500 MB RH 77 74 73 68 68 68 68 67 65 66 61 51 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 13 14 14 17 20 24 26 27 27 30 31 40 850 MB ENV VOR 55 55 46 43 52 78 91 91 89 84 127 207 307 200 MB DIV 83 69 79 90 122 97 91 34 39 77 136 168 168 700-850 TADV 3 2 0 4 5 8 20 30 35 61 46 24 138 LAND (KM) 444 380 261 178 116 206 377 524 694 1063 983 634 291 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 62.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 9 10 10 10 10 13 20 27 33 34 HEAT CONTENT 69 75 73 69 45 84 70 57 56 28 6 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 773 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 25. 26. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -10. -12. -15. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -8. -7. -5. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 9. 12. 13. 13. 15. 14. 21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 7. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 6. 13. 20. 24. 23. 20. 23. 22. 23. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982012 INVEST 10/12/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 88.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 66.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 27.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982012 INVEST 10/12/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)