* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982012 10/11/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 28 28 29 31 37 38 40 46 43 44 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 28 28 29 31 37 38 40 46 43 44 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 29 29 28 27 25 24 23 23 23 24 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 27 16 22 21 17 20 18 25 26 23 30 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 5 8 9 7 1 1 0 0 5 -1 8 SHEAR DIR 265 265 269 250 244 252 239 244 245 263 249 255 248 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.5 29.5 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 164 165 165 161 159 159 159 156 156 156 160 160 158 ADJ. POT. INT. 170 170 170 164 160 158 154 147 145 144 146 144 140 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.8 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -52.3 -52.6 -52.4 -52.7 -52.6 -52.5 -52.3 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 79 78 75 74 73 73 70 66 63 62 61 63 65 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 10 11 11 12 13 13 17 17 18 22 19 22 850 MB ENV VOR 38 36 47 47 40 46 31 50 70 80 75 68 83 200 MB DIV 57 57 65 69 80 73 15 88 56 41 30 10 65 700-850 TADV 2 2 9 13 10 13 6 5 5 8 12 18 12 LAND (KM) 484 455 441 364 326 402 453 275 185 231 355 489 596 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 55.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 12 12 11 10 8 8 8 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 40 43 45 49 56 73 96 83 80 84 68 40 50 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 712 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 4. 10. 17. 21. 26. 29. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -13. -14. -15. -17. -16. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 6. 6. 8. 11. 7. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 7. 8. 10. 16. 13. 14. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982012 INVEST 10/11/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 46.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 21.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982012 INVEST 10/11/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)