* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982012 10/10/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 32 33 35 39 39 42 46 51 54 57 V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 32 33 35 39 39 42 46 51 54 57 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 32 32 32 31 29 29 29 30 33 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 20 23 27 19 18 15 20 13 15 11 14 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 2 3 6 10 7 2 3 2 5 3 5 SHEAR DIR 258 256 260 261 254 241 254 234 246 244 256 263 275 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 164 164 166 164 164 160 160 159 157 156 156 154 154 ADJ. POT. INT. 172 169 171 168 167 159 157 155 148 145 144 141 140 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -53.6 -53.0 -52.9 -52.3 -52.6 -52.2 -52.5 -52.3 -52.6 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 9 10 9 9 9 10 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 78 75 74 73 72 72 72 72 68 68 67 68 66 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 8 9 10 11 12 11 14 16 17 16 17 850 MB ENV VOR 53 44 38 34 44 43 58 60 69 80 90 88 84 200 MB DIV 77 76 50 47 60 62 77 47 80 59 60 24 32 700-850 TADV 0 1 2 2 6 7 9 3 3 2 1 4 6 LAND (KM) 401 439 438 411 384 250 267 388 409 304 221 168 110 LAT (DEG N) 9.3 9.8 10.2 10.7 11.2 12.2 13.2 14.2 15.2 15.8 16.2 16.5 17.0 LONG(DEG W) 53.7 54.7 55.6 56.6 57.5 59.2 60.8 62.2 63.4 64.2 65.0 65.7 66.3 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 11 10 9 9 8 6 5 4 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 39 38 40 38 38 52 70 76 84 86 89 92 95 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 753 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -1. 4. 10. 17. 21. 26. 29. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -15. -17. -19. -21. -22. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 5. 7. 7. 6. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 9. 12. 16. 21. 24. 27. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982012 INVEST 10/10/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 38.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 76.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.6 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982012 INVEST 10/10/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)