* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982012 10/10/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 36 39 40 40 36 36 42 45 47 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 36 39 40 40 36 36 42 45 47 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 36 37 38 37 33 28 25 24 24 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 13 14 13 21 26 29 32 27 23 18 22 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 6 1 1 4 8 8 8 6 -2 1 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 274 268 267 252 246 251 242 240 247 252 238 245 248 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 168 166 166 165 164 160 157 156 156 156 155 155 154 ADJ. POT. INT. 173 172 171 168 166 160 154 152 149 147 143 141 139 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -54.0 -54.0 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 -52.7 -53.2 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 9 9 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 75 72 73 75 74 70 71 70 70 68 70 65 67 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 10 11 12 11 12 15 16 17 850 MB ENV VOR 69 61 59 54 45 34 39 22 11 5 43 49 60 200 MB DIV 100 102 84 94 99 62 82 76 30 38 71 41 44 700-850 TADV -7 -6 -3 -2 0 4 7 14 1 0 1 3 5 LAND (KM) 492 478 467 503 553 592 528 517 588 589 475 393 351 LAT (DEG N) 8.9 9.3 9.6 10.2 10.7 11.9 13.2 14.5 15.8 17.0 18.1 18.8 19.7 LONG(DEG W) 50.4 51.4 52.4 53.2 53.9 55.4 56.8 58.1 59.2 60.3 61.2 62.0 62.7 STM SPEED (KT) 15 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 39 41 41 44 39 46 59 73 78 76 73 75 78 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 776 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 4. 10. 17. 21. 26. 29. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -3. -8. -12. -14. -15. -15. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -15. -16. -18. -20. -21. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 1. 2. 5. 5. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 10. 10. 6. 6. 12. 15. 17. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982012 INVEST 10/10/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 95.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 40.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 51.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 45% is 3.5 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982012 INVEST 10/10/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)