* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982012 10/09/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 25 26 28 28 26 24 23 27 32 36 V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 25 26 28 28 26 24 23 27 32 36 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 27 26 23 19 16 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 14 20 23 21 34 35 37 30 28 24 26 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 4 4 3 1 6 6 7 5 2 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 258 255 265 275 273 253 254 247 248 256 251 250 253 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 169 167 166 164 164 160 158 157 156 157 156 154 154 ADJ. POT. INT. 174 172 172 169 168 162 157 153 151 149 144 142 141 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.5 -53.9 -53.8 -53.3 -53.7 -53.1 -53.1 -52.8 -53.1 -52.7 -52.9 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 10 10 9 10 10 10 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 71 71 73 71 73 73 75 73 71 70 65 65 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 6 5 6 7 7 10 10 10 10 11 850 MB ENV VOR 61 61 57 57 51 37 35 23 23 14 22 50 59 200 MB DIV 75 93 88 80 94 66 48 39 45 31 73 43 20 700-850 TADV -5 -4 -5 -6 -3 5 0 4 9 0 -1 -3 2 LAND (KM) 666 604 561 560 571 624 552 490 529 575 430 339 225 LAT (DEG N) 9.3 9.6 9.8 10.3 10.7 11.7 12.9 14.1 15.3 16.3 17.2 17.5 17.6 LONG(DEG W) 48.3 49.6 50.8 51.8 52.8 54.7 56.4 58.0 59.4 60.7 61.8 62.6 63.7 STM SPEED (KT) 18 13 11 11 11 10 10 9 9 8 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 36 36 39 45 47 41 54 69 77 74 73 67 69 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 24 CX,CY: -23/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 872 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -3. -2. 2. 9. 17. 23. 28. 32. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -5. -12. -17. -22. -24. -24. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -14. -16. -17. -20. -21. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. 0. 1. 3. 3. 1. -1. -2. 2. 7. 11. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982012 INVEST 10/09/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 86.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 146.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.2/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 40.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982012 INVEST 10/09/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)