* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982012 10/08/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 26 27 29 30 31 27 24 22 22 22 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 27 29 30 31 27 24 22 22 22 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 28 28 29 29 29 28 26 22 19 15 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 19 20 18 17 20 26 30 41 41 45 43 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 3 2 3 5 3 2 3 1 1 0 2 SHEAR DIR 283 277 272 262 262 272 265 255 257 243 245 239 244 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.3 29.5 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.2 29.0 29.0 29.2 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 158 161 165 167 165 161 156 152 151 155 156 ADJ. POT. INT. 167 164 167 171 172 172 171 166 156 149 146 148 147 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.4 -53.7 -53.9 -53.6 -53.4 -54.1 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 8 9 8 700-500 MB RH 68 66 67 70 68 70 67 67 66 71 72 72 74 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 7 8 7 6 6 6 8 8 8 9 850 MB ENV VOR 37 29 29 27 25 38 23 11 0 13 32 32 47 200 MB DIV 28 49 66 44 33 75 81 89 55 62 53 48 47 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -3 -3 -3 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 -1 0 -3 LAND (KM) 1261 1244 1202 1167 1056 884 801 779 808 854 758 712 723 LAT (DEG N) 8.2 8.3 8.3 8.5 8.7 9.4 10.3 11.5 12.7 13.9 14.9 15.9 16.8 LONG(DEG W) 37.6 39.0 40.3 41.6 42.8 45.3 47.6 49.8 52.0 53.8 55.4 57.0 58.4 STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 13 13 13 12 12 12 11 10 9 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 33 37 48 55 52 53 54 60 57 51 55 76 71 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 734 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -2. 2. 9. 17. 22. 27. 32. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -8. -14. -21. -27. -30. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -15. -17. -20. -21. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 2. -1. -3. -3. -3. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982012 INVEST 10/08/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 143.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.2/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 45.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982012 INVEST 10/08/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED