* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982012 08/29/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 40 46 59 70 79 86 91 93 93 92 V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 40 46 59 70 79 86 91 93 93 92 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 31 34 42 52 63 73 79 81 78 74 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 17 16 15 13 13 13 14 22 16 22 27 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -2 1 2 2 3 1 4 3 9 6 3 0 SHEAR DIR 58 66 65 72 50 41 2 356 346 320 313 310 315 SST (C) 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.9 28.3 28.6 28.8 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 133 131 131 131 131 131 132 133 136 141 145 147 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 131 131 130 130 129 130 128 130 133 134 133 132 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -53.0 -53.3 -52.8 -52.7 -52.4 -52.1 -52.1 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 9 9 10 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 69 71 70 68 66 69 68 70 68 62 60 62 66 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 15 16 17 19 19 19 20 21 23 25 26 27 850 MB ENV VOR 134 142 146 141 138 123 108 86 66 42 20 0 -16 200 MB DIV 18 29 54 52 68 67 42 47 68 63 90 12 38 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -2 -1 -4 -5 -4 -10 -8 -8 -4 -3 0 LAND (KM) 1864 1855 1757 1659 1572 1443 1352 1325 1230 1165 998 910 901 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.6 13.8 14.1 14.4 15.2 16.1 17.0 18.1 19.2 20.2 21.3 22.5 LONG(DEG W) 35.6 37.1 38.6 40.1 41.5 44.4 47.4 50.1 52.4 54.5 56.4 57.6 58.3 STM SPEED (KT) 17 15 15 14 14 15 15 13 12 11 9 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 13 12 14 18 29 34 37 35 50 57 64 63 53 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 414 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 9. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 7. 7. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 15. 21. 34. 45. 54. 61. 66. 68. 68. 67. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982012 INVEST 08/29/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 60.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982012 INVEST 08/29/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)