* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982012 08/29/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 39 44 58 69 79 89 96 97 99 98 V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 39 44 58 69 79 89 96 97 99 98 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 30 33 36 44 54 67 81 93 98 96 90 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 20 18 18 15 10 8 9 8 11 16 17 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -3 0 3 4 2 0 2 2 4 5 6 -3 SHEAR DIR 53 63 53 62 66 61 2 1 315 341 274 299 320 SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.3 27.2 27.2 27.5 27.7 28.2 28.5 28.7 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 134 132 132 131 129 129 129 133 135 141 144 145 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 131 132 131 128 129 129 131 131 135 135 132 129 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.9 -53.6 -53.8 -54.0 -53.0 -53.2 -52.7 -52.5 -52.0 -52.3 -51.9 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 9 9 10 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 76 75 78 76 73 68 66 63 61 57 56 58 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 13 15 16 16 18 18 19 20 23 23 25 27 850 MB ENV VOR 122 129 133 134 130 123 101 90 78 71 51 25 4 200 MB DIV 19 21 41 54 71 87 36 68 51 58 60 71 28 700-850 TADV -2 0 -3 0 2 1 0 -2 -1 -1 0 1 -11 LAND (KM) 1674 1781 1833 1855 1867 1741 1625 1551 1453 1288 1049 869 777 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.4 12.8 13.4 13.9 15.3 16.6 17.9 18.8 19.7 20.2 20.7 20.9 LONG(DEG W) 32.7 33.8 34.9 36.2 37.4 40.2 43.5 47.0 50.3 53.3 55.9 57.8 58.8 STM SPEED (KT) 17 12 13 13 14 16 18 17 15 14 11 7 5 HEAT CONTENT 10 10 12 10 12 39 37 28 30 47 53 61 60 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 23 CX,CY: -22/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 235 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 11. 12. 13. 12. 12. 11. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 9. 10. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 6. 7. 5. 4. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 19. 33. 44. 54. 64. 71. 72. 74. 73. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982012 INVEST 08/29/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 9.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982012 INVEST 08/29/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)