* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982012 07/24/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 42 45 47 49 48 45 44 33 26 17 DIS V (KT) LAND 35 39 42 45 47 49 48 45 44 33 26 17 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 39 43 46 49 48 46 42 38 35 34 34 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 6 9 11 10 10 27 34 35 42 49 49 42 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -2 -2 1 -5 0 5 9 1 2 0 3 SHEAR DIR 220 214 247 278 273 280 257 233 206 202 204 203 188 SST (C) 25.6 25.1 24.9 24.2 21.0 12.6 10.5 10.0 9.3 7.1 6.0 6.9 6.5 POT. INT. (KT) 111 108 107 102 85 69 67 67 66 64 63 62 62 ADJ. POT. INT. 95 95 94 90 77 66 65 65 64 63 N/A 61 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.1 -52.8 -53.3 -54.1 -54.8 -54.2 -52.7 -51.1 -49.9 -49.1 -48.0 -46.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 50 50 55 60 64 70 66 66 65 66 66 68 65 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 6 6 6 5 4 2 9 8 10 11 8 850 MB ENV VOR 6 8 3 32 71 95 82 78 70 35 42 99 108 200 MB DIV 34 25 16 48 40 39 50 46 59 38 -4 -24 -80 700-850 TADV 0 -2 9 13 3 40 35 21 -13 2 -3 -15 -10 LAND (KM) 1148 1033 878 691 519 242 253 446 585 828 933 851 830 LAT (DEG N) 36.0 37.4 38.8 40.6 42.3 46.0 49.5 52.9 56.2 59.0 61.5 63.4 64.8 LONG(DEG W) 55.0 53.9 52.7 51.8 50.9 50.1 49.8 49.2 48.4 47.5 46.5 45.2 44.0 STM SPEED (KT) 11 17 18 19 19 18 17 17 15 14 11 9 7 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 6 CX,CY: 4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 812 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 8. 4. -1. -5. -9. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 16. 17. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -4. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -15. -19. -23. -26. -29. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. 0. -1. 0. 1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 13. 10. 9. -2. -9. -18. -30. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982012 INVEST 07/24/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 50.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982012 INVEST 07/24/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)