* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972014 08/24/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 23 24 28 33 35 38 38 41 43 47 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 23 24 28 33 35 38 38 41 43 47 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 21 22 23 25 26 28 29 31 32 34 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 5 6 6 7 12 13 17 15 23 17 14 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 3 6 6 2 0 -3 0 -6 0 0 8 SHEAR DIR 136 177 211 254 241 254 248 263 252 255 239 227 148 SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.4 26.8 26.8 27.1 27.5 27.9 28.1 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 133 133 133 132 133 131 124 124 127 131 135 138 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 135 136 136 136 134 125 123 124 126 129 130 132 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.4 -54.5 -54.4 -54.3 -54.3 -54.0 -53.9 -53.9 -54.1 -54.0 -54.2 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 7 8 8 8 9 10 10 11 11 12 700-500 MB RH 63 62 61 60 57 59 58 59 58 55 53 51 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 5 5 4 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 30 31 33 27 21 19 6 5 -2 -9 -23 -50 200 MB DIV 11 7 -2 -23 -10 -3 34 16 37 19 17 6 16 700-850 TADV 2 -1 -1 -2 -4 -6 0 -4 -1 0 0 -1 2 LAND (KM) 1704 1658 1627 1637 1557 1355 1209 1084 1041 841 757 735 583 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.2 11.3 11.7 12.1 13.0 13.9 14.4 15.0 15.5 16.4 17.5 18.9 LONG(DEG W) 33.5 35.0 36.4 38.0 39.6 42.9 46.2 49.5 52.4 54.9 57.0 58.8 60.2 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 15 16 17 17 16 15 13 12 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 14 13 11 12 14 15 18 33 49 60 61 64 63 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 24. 28. 31. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 6. 3. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -14. -16. -18. -18. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -7. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 13. 15. 18. 18. 21. 23. 27. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972014 INVEST 08/24/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.7 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 35.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972014 INVEST 08/24/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)