* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972013 10/03/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 46 49 50 56 56 61 61 57 46 37 27 V (KT) LAND 40 43 46 49 50 56 56 61 50 35 29 28 28 V (KT) LGE mod 40 42 45 47 48 50 50 49 42 32 28 27 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 14 20 20 19 22 21 30 23 30 32 51 56 63 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -4 0 4 -1 -3 -3 0 1 0 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 252 259 261 252 262 235 261 233 246 243 233 228 229 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.2 29.2 28.8 28.5 28.3 28.2 26.8 24.1 22.4 21.0 POT. INT. (KT) 146 148 151 155 155 148 142 139 139 123 101 91 84 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 137 138 140 138 128 121 116 117 108 89 81 76 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.3 -52.8 -52.5 -52.6 -52.0 -52.7 -52.2 -52.6 -52.6 -53.6 -55.2 -55.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 9 8 9 7 9 4 3 0 1 0 700-500 MB RH 60 58 59 60 54 51 40 44 44 50 44 45 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 13 14 13 16 14 18 19 19 14 12 10 850 MB ENV VOR -25 -38 -24 -16 -51 -60 -104 -41 -29 28 33 17 15 200 MB DIV 86 54 38 30 39 46 6 58 64 60 36 31 41 700-850 TADV 5 7 11 8 17 11 12 7 15 20 2 -5 -8 LAND (KM) 32 119 235 344 390 208 93 55 -26 -217 -395 -402 -155 LAT (DEG N) 21.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 86.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 11 10 10 8 7 5 8 14 16 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 32 29 33 35 30 31 38 36 29 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 11 CX,CY: -4/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 492 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 16. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -6. -9. -14. -19. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 4. 2. 6. 7. 6. 1. -1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 10. 16. 16. 21. 21. 17. 6. -3. -13. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972013 INVEST 10/03/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.1 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.6 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.8 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 31.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 61.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 4% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.9 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972013 INVEST 10/03/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972013 INVEST 10/03/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)