* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972013 10/02/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 42 47 52 58 58 61 60 53 44 36 V (KT) LAND 30 34 32 39 44 49 56 55 59 39 30 28 28 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 31 36 38 42 45 46 46 34 29 28 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 7 11 15 13 12 19 25 30 27 32 44 55 55 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -5 -2 -1 4 -3 -3 -4 -3 -2 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 255 246 256 255 249 260 240 265 243 251 240 232 227 SST (C) 29.0 28.6 28.4 28.6 28.9 29.2 28.6 28.4 28.3 27.3 23.9 22.2 21.4 POT. INT. (KT) 152 147 143 146 151 156 145 140 140 130 100 89 84 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 140 135 136 139 141 127 118 119 115 89 78 74 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -53.3 -53.4 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -55.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 10 8 8 6 9 4 3 1 2 700-500 MB RH 61 60 58 56 57 51 47 39 40 41 47 54 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 11 11 13 12 15 13 16 17 15 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR 4 -2 -27 -32 -18 -60 -71 -105 -38 -26 16 43 32 200 MB DIV 87 85 70 33 41 36 31 6 47 35 53 55 50 700-850 TADV 7 6 11 8 9 19 12 5 6 11 12 -31 -5 LAND (KM) 176 76 -13 95 219 368 103 89 36 -165 -415 -433 -277 LAT (DEG N) 19.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 85.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 13 12 12 12 10 5 8 16 18 12 10 HEAT CONTENT 76 67 13 25 28 34 37 41 22 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 490 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 24. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 3. 0. -4. -9. -14. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 4. 2. 5. 5. 3. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 17. 22. 28. 28. 31. 30. 23. 14. 6. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972013 INVEST 10/02/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 41.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 71.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972013 INVEST 10/02/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972013 INVEST 10/02/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)