* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972013 10/02/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 34 41 47 56 57 64 62 59 55 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 27 27 31 37 45 46 53 51 48 37 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 25 25 26 32 35 38 42 45 47 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 8 7 11 12 11 13 13 18 18 24 27 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -4 -4 -3 -3 0 -4 0 -4 1 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 261 252 227 221 229 218 239 234 259 248 252 242 250 SST (C) 29.4 29.2 28.8 28.6 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.5 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 158 155 149 145 145 148 151 154 153 151 151 146 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 148 141 136 135 135 135 136 133 131 136 133 124 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.4 -52.9 -52.9 -53.2 -52.9 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -53.1 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 63 60 59 59 60 57 53 47 41 44 50 53 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 7 8 10 10 12 12 13 12 15 14 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 17 2 2 7 -4 -8 -7 0 -38 4 -5 14 24 200 MB DIV 67 60 75 73 61 42 18 25 10 34 38 44 23 700-850 TADV 0 3 4 9 4 1 11 1 11 1 6 2 13 LAND (KM) 212 189 77 -19 -116 12 188 355 426 322 227 167 -89 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.3 18.8 19.4 19.9 21.2 22.6 24.0 25.3 26.2 27.1 28.2 29.8 LONG(DEG W) 84.8 85.8 86.8 87.7 88.5 90.0 90.9 91.5 91.4 90.8 88.8 85.6 82.2 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 10 10 9 8 7 6 7 13 16 17 HEAT CONTENT 60 66 63 81 0 35 27 43 66 42 28 23 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 32.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 11. 18. 22. 26. 29. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 6. 5. 2. 0. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. 7. 5. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 17. 22. 31. 32. 39. 37. 34. 30. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972013 INVEST 10/02/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 32.3 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.1 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 54.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 35.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972013 INVEST 10/02/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972013 INVEST 10/02/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)