* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972013 10/02/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 32 38 44 49 53 56 58 57 55 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 28 27 33 38 42 45 47 46 44 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 27 29 26 31 34 38 42 47 49 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 7 7 11 9 16 13 18 16 24 23 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -3 -5 -6 -3 -2 -1 -1 -1 -1 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 225 244 248 202 201 205 199 225 240 273 233 232 227 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.2 28.9 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 155 150 145 146 149 152 153 153 152 150 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 149 147 142 136 135 135 136 134 133 134 137 133 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.3 -53.4 -53.0 -52.8 -53.2 -52.7 -52.9 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -53.3 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 10 10 9 11 10 12 11 9 3 6 700-500 MB RH 63 62 58 59 59 57 55 48 41 39 43 52 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 15 -2 1 8 -26 5 -7 4 -16 7 13 23 200 MB DIV 65 59 51 77 72 38 42 2 25 19 35 18 23 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 5 1 3 1 2 7 -9 -5 -7 LAND (KM) 182 212 201 94 -12 -97 66 225 391 442 311 217 78 LAT (DEG N) 17.4 17.8 18.2 18.7 19.2 20.4 21.6 22.8 24.2 25.2 26.3 27.4 29.1 LONG(DEG W) 83.8 84.8 85.7 86.7 87.6 89.1 90.4 91.3 91.9 91.7 90.8 88.2 84.7 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 6 6 10 15 18 HEAT CONTENT 57 60 65 65 84 34 25 31 51 77 41 30 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 11. 18. 22. 27. 30. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. 3. 1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 13. 19. 24. 28. 31. 33. 32. 30. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972013 INVEST 10/02/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.9 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 66.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 39.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.7 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972013 INVEST 10/02/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972013 INVEST 10/02/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)