* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972013 10/01/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 33 40 48 53 59 59 64 64 58 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 33 30 28 33 39 40 45 44 38 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 29 27 27 31 35 39 43 46 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 10 12 9 7 12 13 16 16 20 19 29 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -5 -5 -4 -4 -4 -4 -4 -2 -1 0 2 SHEAR DIR 200 220 256 255 241 228 216 229 230 261 260 245 231 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.2 29.0 28.7 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 154 156 158 155 152 147 149 151 154 153 151 152 150 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 148 151 148 143 137 137 137 137 132 131 136 137 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.9 -53.3 -53.4 -53.0 -53.2 -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 8 10 10 11 11 12 12 13 6 5 700-500 MB RH 63 63 63 59 59 59 56 50 43 38 37 45 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 7 7 7 8 10 12 11 13 11 14 15 13 850 MB ENV VOR 23 38 22 3 0 -2 -2 -1 8 1 31 34 38 200 MB DIV 51 69 55 28 46 57 33 25 5 3 10 27 34 700-850 TADV 3 1 0 0 3 6 1 10 0 11 0 3 -5 LAND (KM) 154 141 168 199 85 -97 -54 113 282 406 483 349 200 LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.1 17.4 17.9 18.3 19.3 20.4 21.7 23.0 24.1 24.9 26.0 27.4 LONG(DEG W) 83.1 84.0 84.8 85.8 86.8 88.4 89.9 91.1 92.0 92.4 92.4 91.4 88.6 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 11 10 9 9 8 7 5 5 10 14 HEAT CONTENT 47 50 54 63 62 0 34 28 37 50 83 55 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 6. 4. 3. 0. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 3. 5. 3. 5. 5. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 8. 15. 23. 28. 34. 34. 39. 39. 33. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972013 INVEST 10/01/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.4 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 55.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 28.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.9 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972013 INVEST 10/01/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972013 INVEST 10/01/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)