* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972013 10/01/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 30 37 42 51 52 55 54 55 50 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 30 32 29 33 34 37 36 37 32 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 29 32 28 31 34 37 41 44 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 5 9 11 8 13 12 18 16 22 19 28 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -3 -2 -4 -4 -4 -4 -2 -3 -3 0 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 260 225 228 256 251 213 231 219 240 252 281 244 243 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.3 28.8 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 154 155 157 158 157 148 148 151 152 154 152 150 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 148 150 152 150 139 138 139 137 136 133 133 132 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.0 -52.9 -53.3 -53.4 -53.0 -53.3 -52.8 -53.2 -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 10 9 8 10 9 12 11 13 12 9 2 700-500 MB RH 66 63 65 64 63 61 58 52 44 40 36 43 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 9 7 7 5 5 3 850 MB ENV VOR 21 25 39 29 11 10 -12 8 -7 2 -10 -9 -9 200 MB DIV 32 39 54 50 37 70 39 33 -5 6 16 22 30 700-850 TADV 2 2 1 0 0 6 -2 8 0 8 7 0 -2 LAND (KM) 161 150 129 157 206 -6 -139 38 213 378 475 308 125 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.5 16.9 17.3 17.7 18.8 19.8 21.2 22.5 23.8 25.1 26.5 28.0 LONG(DEG W) 82.1 83.0 83.8 84.8 85.7 87.6 89.2 90.6 91.6 92.4 92.5 91.9 89.6 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 10 10 9 9 9 8 7 7 10 13 HEAT CONTENT 43 44 48 53 60 86 34 31 34 44 81 43 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 6. 4. 3. 1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -10. -10. -11. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 1. -1. -1. -4. -4. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 12. 17. 26. 27. 30. 29. 30. 25. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972013 INVEST 10/01/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.2 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 49.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 27.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.1 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972013 INVEST 10/01/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972013 INVEST 10/01/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)