* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972013 10/01/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 36 38 43 49 54 57 59 59 61 59 V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 36 38 43 36 30 34 36 37 38 36 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 37 39 44 38 30 35 39 44 49 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 5 4 9 10 6 13 13 15 13 18 15 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -3 -3 -5 -5 -4 -4 -4 -4 -1 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 257 258 215 216 254 216 205 205 226 225 246 246 246 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.0 28.6 28.8 28.8 29.1 29.3 29.2 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 154 156 158 151 145 148 147 152 155 153 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 148 146 147 149 142 134 135 133 134 135 133 133 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.1 -52.9 -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 8 10 10 11 12 12 12 12 9 700-500 MB RH 66 64 63 63 63 59 59 54 48 43 40 44 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 7 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 26 33 42 26 6 3 3 -1 3 -30 -28 -38 200 MB DIV 45 47 55 63 50 41 48 32 10 4 6 12 27 700-850 TADV 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 0 11 0 9 0 1 LAND (KM) 165 154 140 149 178 93 -78 -65 106 256 379 411 329 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.3 16.8 17.2 17.5 18.4 19.4 20.6 22.0 23.3 24.5 25.4 26.2 LONG(DEG W) 81.9 82.7 83.4 84.2 84.9 86.7 88.2 89.5 90.3 90.7 90.5 89.9 88.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 8 9 9 9 8 8 6 6 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 41 43 46 50 54 63 82 35 20 29 38 43 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 24. 27. 29. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 5. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 6. 8. 13. 19. 24. 27. 29. 30. 31. 29. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972013 INVEST 10/01/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.9 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 46.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 23.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972013 INVEST 10/01/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972013 INVEST 10/01/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED