* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972013 10/01/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 23 25 30 38 46 51 54 57 60 61 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 23 25 30 38 31 32 35 38 41 43 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 26 29 27 27 34 38 43 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 4 5 8 6 12 11 15 10 12 10 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -4 -3 -1 -5 -5 -6 -4 -3 -3 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 237 255 225 180 197 229 179 192 196 218 236 288 254 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.3 29.0 28.8 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 153 155 154 154 156 158 158 160 161 156 151 147 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 149 148 147 149 151 150 151 151 144 137 131 128 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.1 -52.9 -53.4 -52.7 -53.1 -52.6 -53.0 -52.8 -53.2 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 9 9 8 10 8 12 10 14 11 16 700-500 MB RH 65 65 64 63 63 62 61 57 54 47 44 42 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 32 40 34 39 45 19 25 11 17 -14 -13 -29 -14 200 MB DIV 59 46 42 57 61 32 50 35 12 -21 -24 -4 28 700-850 TADV 1 2 2 1 0 1 3 0 6 0 5 0 1 LAND (KM) 257 172 116 97 67 108 53 -127 9 145 258 206 129 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.4 15.8 16.1 16.4 16.8 17.5 18.2 19.1 19.9 20.8 21.6 22.3 LONG(DEG W) 80.8 81.7 82.5 83.3 84.1 85.8 87.7 89.4 91.1 92.7 94.1 95.2 96.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 38 39 41 41 40 43 41 0 23 24 25 25 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 4. 11. 19. 25. 30. 34. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 10. 9. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 5. 10. 18. 26. 31. 34. 37. 40. 41. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972013 INVEST 10/01/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.0 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.9 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.9 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 39.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 24.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972013 INVEST 10/01/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972013 INVEST 10/01/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)