* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972013 09/30/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 21 23 26 33 40 42 43 46 49 52 V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 21 23 26 33 33 29 32 35 38 40 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 25 28 27 27 31 34 38 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 7 5 5 8 9 12 13 13 9 10 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -3 -4 -2 -1 -9 -4 -4 -5 -2 -5 -3 SHEAR DIR 269 257 267 248 209 228 195 219 219 231 236 274 268 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.0 28.7 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 153 155 154 158 158 160 162 160 151 146 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 147 147 148 147 151 151 153 154 151 140 133 129 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 9 8 9 8 10 10 11 12 14 700-500 MB RH 67 67 65 66 64 65 63 64 60 58 52 51 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 35 41 34 33 30 23 19 10 -6 -12 -6 -10 200 MB DIV 59 48 40 44 44 48 38 31 35 22 0 -4 11 700-850 TADV 1 0 1 2 1 -1 0 -1 1 1 -1 0 -2 LAND (KM) 344 257 174 104 80 56 129 -42 -92 33 142 111 28 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.9 15.3 15.6 15.9 16.4 16.9 17.5 18.1 18.9 19.7 20.4 21.0 LONG(DEG W) 80.0 80.8 81.6 82.5 83.3 84.9 86.8 88.6 90.5 92.4 94.2 95.6 96.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 9 9 8 9 9 10 10 9 9 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 50 39 39 41 42 40 46 88 0 8 20 23 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 4. 11. 19. 25. 30. 34. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 9. 8. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -16. -16. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -7. -7. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 13. 20. 22. 23. 26. 29. 32. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972013 INVEST 09/30/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.4 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.2 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 42.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 3.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972013 INVEST 09/30/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972013 INVEST 09/30/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED