* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972013 09/30/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 22 23 29 34 42 45 47 49 51 52 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 22 23 29 34 42 33 29 34 36 37 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 25 28 31 28 27 33 36 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 7 7 7 6 10 8 13 11 18 12 16 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -4 -3 -5 -3 -6 -5 -2 -5 -2 -5 -1 SHEAR DIR 262 264 246 247 231 217 221 214 204 207 224 227 262 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.3 28.9 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 153 154 154 156 158 156 160 162 156 149 146 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 146 147 149 148 148 151 148 152 153 146 136 132 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -52.9 -53.4 -53.0 -53.3 -52.8 -53.1 -52.9 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 8 9 7 10 8 11 9 13 11 700-500 MB RH 69 67 68 66 67 65 65 64 59 58 52 49 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 35 29 34 37 29 38 26 32 14 6 -17 -10 -17 200 MB DIV 44 49 51 44 42 60 46 48 37 34 -3 -7 -3 700-850 TADV 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 1 -2 5 -2 2 -3 LAND (KM) 409 333 257 177 123 73 118 74 -116 -6 109 175 88 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.6 15.0 15.4 15.8 16.4 16.9 17.4 18.0 18.8 19.5 20.2 20.8 LONG(DEG W) 79.4 80.1 80.8 81.6 82.4 83.9 85.7 87.5 89.3 91.2 93.0 94.7 96.1 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 9 8 8 9 9 10 9 9 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 56 49 39 40 42 42 47 45 0 45 28 22 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 655 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 11. 19. 25. 30. 34. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 9. 9. 7. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -15. -16. -17. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 9. 14. 22. 25. 27. 29. 31. 32. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972013 INVEST 09/30/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.9 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.7 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 45.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 24.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972013 INVEST 09/30/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972013 INVEST 09/30/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED