* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972013 09/30/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 21 23 27 34 42 47 49 51 53 54 V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 21 23 27 34 42 41 32 34 35 36 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 21 22 24 27 30 35 28 32 36 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 12 7 8 8 5 8 10 13 13 18 13 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -3 -3 -4 -4 -4 -7 -7 0 -3 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 239 248 244 219 242 195 202 159 190 187 205 223 265 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 28.8 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 153 154 154 154 154 148 145 145 147 146 146 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 146 146 148 147 147 147 140 137 136 137 134 131 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 9 9 10 10 12 12 700-500 MB RH 72 68 67 67 67 64 66 62 63 58 56 49 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 50 36 32 40 40 32 38 31 27 21 5 -5 0 200 MB DIV 54 38 63 51 35 44 56 48 37 27 5 -8 0 700-850 TADV 1 1 1 1 1 0 -1 0 0 0 4 0 2 LAND (KM) 424 409 333 252 180 112 81 162 -10 -93 99 224 215 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.5 14.8 15.2 15.5 16.2 16.6 17.2 17.8 18.5 19.5 20.4 21.3 LONG(DEG W) 78.7 79.4 80.1 80.9 81.6 83.2 84.7 86.6 88.3 90.2 92.0 93.7 95.0 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 51 57 50 38 38 41 40 48 10 33 29 25 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 724 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 11. 19. 24. 29. 33. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 8. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 14. 22. 27. 29. 31. 33. 34. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972013 INVEST 09/30/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.4 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.7 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 46.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 20.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972013 INVEST 09/30/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972013 INVEST 09/30/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED