* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972013 09/30/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 21 22 25 31 38 43 45 47 47 48 V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 21 22 25 31 38 43 34 33 33 34 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 21 21 22 25 27 31 28 27 33 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 14 14 9 9 8 10 8 15 16 22 16 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -4 -4 -3 -4 -7 -3 -4 -6 -4 -3 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 258 244 255 249 237 226 207 183 176 173 189 206 215 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.0 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 150 152 152 152 154 154 154 151 143 144 143 145 146 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 144 145 145 147 147 146 144 135 135 133 132 133 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.3 -53.1 -53.4 -53.0 -53.5 -52.9 -53.3 -52.7 -52.9 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 8 9 7 10 7 11 8 13 700-500 MB RH 72 69 66 65 65 63 62 61 63 62 58 54 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 43 46 38 34 42 24 38 23 31 18 16 -4 8 200 MB DIV 62 48 42 47 45 49 67 51 54 52 26 15 -5 700-850 TADV 1 2 2 1 1 1 -2 0 1 0 4 -1 2 LAND (KM) 419 393 375 370 305 193 128 148 76 -95 12 166 289 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.4 14.7 15.1 15.5 16.3 16.8 17.2 17.7 18.4 19.3 20.1 21.0 LONG(DEG W) 78.0 78.6 79.1 79.8 80.4 82.0 83.6 85.4 87.3 89.1 90.8 92.3 93.7 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 45 52 58 57 44 42 47 51 47 0 33 23 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 742 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 5. 11. 19. 24. 29. 33. 36. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 6. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -14. -14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 11. 18. 23. 25. 27. 27. 28. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972013 INVEST 09/30/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.8 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 51.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 8.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972013 INVEST 09/30/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972013 INVEST 09/30/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)