* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972013 09/29/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 21 23 27 31 37 40 42 42 40 39 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 21 23 27 31 37 40 42 32 33 32 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 21 21 22 24 27 29 32 28 32 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 13 15 12 7 12 9 15 11 20 20 23 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 0 0 -2 -7 -4 -3 -6 -4 -4 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 287 252 246 256 251 251 221 243 216 233 228 237 236 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.7 27.6 27.8 28.3 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 150 152 154 156 154 153 147 131 134 140 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 143 142 144 146 147 144 143 137 121 122 126 134 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 9 9 10 9 10 9 10 11 12 700-500 MB RH 72 69 68 64 62 62 58 58 58 59 56 53 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 6 6 7 7 5 5 5 5 5 4 2 850 MB ENV VOR 35 41 44 31 26 24 5 4 3 -8 -28 -29 -28 200 MB DIV 38 51 38 32 32 37 31 35 33 43 27 -1 4 700-850 TADV 2 2 4 4 5 2 1 -1 2 2 0 6 0 LAND (KM) 411 353 300 265 249 259 338 293 240 37 -36 119 282 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.6 15.1 15.6 16.0 17.0 17.8 18.3 19.0 20.0 21.1 22.2 23.4 LONG(DEG W) 77.3 77.7 78.0 78.6 79.1 80.4 81.8 83.3 85.2 87.0 88.6 90.0 91.2 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 42 44 48 54 57 58 77 111 95 61 17 23 35 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 724 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 19. 24. 29. 33. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 4. 2. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -16. -16. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 11. 17. 20. 22. 22. 20. 19. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972013 INVEST 09/29/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.1 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.9 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.3 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 49.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 29.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.8 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972013 INVEST 09/29/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972013 INVEST 09/29/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)