* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972013 09/29/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 23 24 26 32 36 43 44 48 47 46 43 V (KT) LAND 20 22 23 24 26 32 36 43 44 48 38 35 32 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 22 23 25 27 31 34 31 32 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 15 16 15 11 12 11 12 11 16 18 23 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 1 -1 -2 -6 -7 -4 -4 -5 -5 -5 -2 SHEAR DIR 280 281 258 250 251 237 247 222 241 224 225 226 240 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.1 27.6 28.0 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 150 152 152 156 156 154 151 138 131 136 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 144 143 145 145 147 146 144 141 128 120 125 130 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.2 -53.6 -53.1 -53.6 -53.2 -53.6 -53.3 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 8 9 9 10 9 11 9 11 11 700-500 MB RH 75 71 69 68 66 62 59 57 55 55 54 51 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 7 7 7 7 8 6 7 5 6 5 5 2 850 MB ENV VOR 28 30 34 35 26 30 9 15 -2 0 -28 -28 -35 200 MB DIV 54 43 43 34 27 32 33 49 39 34 23 10 -12 700-850 TADV 2 2 3 4 4 2 2 1 0 4 0 6 0 LAND (KM) 361 372 312 268 231 230 321 320 327 128 -72 23 186 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.4 14.9 15.4 15.9 16.8 17.7 18.3 18.8 19.5 20.4 21.4 22.5 LONG(DEG W) 76.6 77.1 77.5 78.1 78.6 79.9 81.3 82.7 84.4 86.2 88.0 89.6 91.1 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 40 41 44 49 57 59 70 115 100 94 71 11 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 675 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 19. 24. 29. 33. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -13. -15. -16. -17. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 6. 12. 16. 23. 24. 28. 27. 26. 23. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972013 INVEST 09/29/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.5 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.7 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 46.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 63.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 4% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972013 INVEST 09/29/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972013 INVEST 09/29/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)