* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972013 09/04/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 37 41 45 52 59 64 67 67 67 64 64 V (KT) LAND 30 34 37 41 45 52 39 46 50 50 49 39 43 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 39 42 49 38 45 51 57 60 48 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 5 5 5 4 6 9 13 14 17 17 20 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 1 2 4 0 1 0 -1 1 -1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 238 207 262 290 310 255 268 256 258 249 249 251 260 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 154 155 153 151 149 149 150 153 155 156 158 159 161 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 148 146 143 140 138 139 141 140 140 141 142 144 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 63 63 60 60 61 61 60 60 60 58 58 57 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 52 53 53 59 69 70 57 57 53 38 34 31 20 200 MB DIV 60 61 47 41 50 30 44 22 41 16 13 2 -5 700-850 TADV 1 2 5 4 0 0 2 2 3 1 3 0 2 LAND (KM) 200 150 133 101 99 23 -11 4 76 58 21 -18 22 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.6 16.9 17.2 17.5 17.9 18.3 18.5 18.9 19.3 19.7 20.0 20.5 LONG(DEG W) 65.9 66.8 67.7 68.6 69.4 70.9 72.3 73.6 74.9 75.7 76.5 77.2 78.0 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 8 7 7 6 5 4 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 39 34 33 34 36 29 9 12 43 43 34 108 35 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):294/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 506 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 24. 27. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. 8. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -6. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 16. 22. 29. 34. 37. 37. 37. 34. 34. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972013 INVEST 09/04/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 82.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 43% is 3.6 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972013 INVEST 09/04/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972013 INVEST 09/04/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)