* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972013 09/04/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 36 46 54 62 67 72 73 74 73 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 36 46 40 43 48 53 54 43 35 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 32 38 36 38 44 50 55 44 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 1 5 4 4 2 9 9 14 13 15 16 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -1 0 2 3 0 0 0 4 0 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 245 77 190 239 299 156 275 244 264 243 261 229 252 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 156 155 153 151 149 149 150 152 154 153 153 153 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 150 146 143 140 138 137 139 140 137 136 136 134 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 -53.2 -52.6 -53.1 -52.7 -53.0 -52.8 -53.0 -52.8 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 11 11 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 67 64 63 61 61 61 61 60 61 58 59 57 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 8 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 57 52 51 50 55 75 79 65 61 62 48 41 10 200 MB DIV 49 57 57 40 34 53 41 41 21 30 24 8 3 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 4 2 -1 1 0 2 1 2 0 0 LAND (KM) 255 194 137 132 78 27 -30 32 50 69 22 -30 -47 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.3 16.7 17.1 17.4 18.0 18.3 18.6 19.0 19.3 19.6 20.1 20.4 LONG(DEG W) 65.2 66.2 67.1 68.0 68.8 70.3 71.6 72.8 73.9 74.6 75.1 75.6 76.1 STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 9 9 8 7 6 6 5 3 3 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 43 38 34 33 35 36 92 24 47 42 40 92 96 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 467 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 13. 12. 11. 10. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 21. 29. 37. 42. 47. 48. 49. 48. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972013 INVEST 09/04/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.5 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.2 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.9 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 36.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 52.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.6 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972013 INVEST 09/04/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972013 INVEST 09/04/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)