* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972013 09/04/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 41 44 52 61 67 70 72 74 74 74 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 41 44 52 61 47 51 53 54 54 55 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 39 43 50 59 46 54 60 66 70 74 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 4 3 5 6 3 10 10 14 10 13 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -5 -4 -3 -1 2 0 -1 0 3 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 184 203 213 175 195 269 202 253 245 278 252 267 228 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 155 153 151 150 149 150 153 154 155 155 156 ADJ. POT. INT. 152 153 150 147 144 141 138 138 139 139 138 137 138 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -52.7 -53.0 -52.7 -53.1 -52.8 -53.1 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 11 11 11 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 60 61 61 61 59 59 58 60 58 58 57 57 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 8 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 8 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR 70 72 63 57 57 55 70 59 54 48 53 45 42 200 MB DIV 28 40 42 42 35 21 32 33 34 19 15 18 6 700-850 TADV 2 3 2 2 1 4 0 2 0 0 0 2 0 LAND (KM) 352 262 200 144 128 73 0 13 43 73 44 30 0 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.8 16.2 16.6 17.0 17.7 18.3 18.6 18.9 19.2 19.4 19.6 19.9 LONG(DEG W) 64.0 65.0 66.0 66.9 67.8 69.6 71.1 72.5 73.7 74.7 75.4 75.9 76.3 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 9 9 9 7 6 5 4 3 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 39 39 34 32 32 36 2 6 48 42 41 43 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 27. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 12. 12. 11. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 14. 22. 31. 37. 40. 42. 44. 44. 44. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972013 INVEST 09/04/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.1 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 53.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 36% is 3.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972013 INVEST 09/04/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972013 INVEST 09/04/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)