* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972013 09/03/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 32 39 47 55 60 64 64 66 66 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 32 39 38 32 29 33 33 35 35 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 30 35 35 31 29 32 36 39 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 1 6 6 6 3 9 6 16 18 18 14 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -4 -5 -4 -4 -3 0 -2 -2 -2 2 -1 SHEAR DIR 244 178 209 236 293 233 277 244 252 248 269 250 269 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 152 155 155 155 155 152 148 147 148 149 150 150 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 150 151 151 151 144 138 135 135 134 133 132 129 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.6 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.0 -53.2 -52.8 -53.1 -52.9 -53.2 -53.1 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 10 11 11 12 11 11 10 11 10 700-500 MB RH 63 61 62 64 64 62 62 61 63 62 64 63 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 7 6 7 8 850 MB ENV VOR 70 66 63 58 58 52 47 60 47 55 43 54 38 200 MB DIV 0 23 44 42 35 40 29 41 40 25 18 32 19 700-850 TADV 0 2 1 1 2 2 3 -1 0 -1 0 0 2 LAND (KM) 450 469 369 262 172 49 -11 -62 -11 11 38 25 32 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.2 15.6 16.1 16.5 17.6 18.5 19.2 19.6 20.0 20.3 20.6 20.9 LONG(DEG W) 61.7 62.6 63.5 64.5 65.5 67.4 69.1 70.6 72.0 73.0 73.9 74.5 74.8 STM SPEED (KT) 7 10 10 11 11 10 9 7 6 5 4 3 1 HEAT CONTENT 47 45 43 39 35 34 84 89 81 83 38 29 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 488 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 12. 11. 9. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 14. 22. 30. 35. 39. 39. 41. 41. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972013 INVEST 09/03/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.0 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.4 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 41.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 29.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.4 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972013 INVEST 09/03/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972013 INVEST 09/03/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)