* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972013 09/03/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 41 47 56 62 66 67 69 69 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 41 47 45 34 38 39 33 30 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 36 42 42 33 37 42 37 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 2 1 7 6 3 8 5 10 14 19 14 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 -4 -5 -4 -3 0 0 -3 -2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 179 244 184 213 234 318 260 290 250 248 262 274 262 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 155 157 157 154 150 149 150 153 154 156 154 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 148 150 152 152 148 142 139 138 140 139 139 136 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.0 -53.6 -53.3 -53.4 -53.0 -53.1 -52.8 -53.0 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 10 11 11 12 11 11 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 64 62 61 61 64 63 61 62 62 63 62 63 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 8 7 7 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 73 72 66 65 63 57 48 61 55 50 44 44 39 200 MB DIV 18 -2 24 42 36 34 31 33 44 42 19 43 1 700-850 TADV 0 0 2 1 2 4 6 3 0 1 0 1 0 LAND (KM) 434 472 430 335 252 126 54 -2 -32 45 36 -17 -55 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 15.0 15.2 15.6 15.9 16.8 17.7 18.4 18.9 19.3 19.6 20.0 20.4 LONG(DEG W) 61.3 62.2 63.1 64.1 65.0 67.1 69.0 70.7 72.2 73.6 74.7 75.7 76.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 10 10 10 11 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 21 45 44 43 40 33 35 91 76 47 41 93 80 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 492 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 27. 31. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. 12. 13. 12. 11. 10. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 16. 22. 31. 37. 41. 42. 44. 44. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972013 INVEST 09/03/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 38.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 39.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.4 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972013 INVEST 09/03/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972013 INVEST 09/03/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)