* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972013 09/03/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 37 45 55 62 71 76 80 80 80 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 37 45 55 62 58 41 50 43 35 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 33 40 50 60 61 41 53 51 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 7 2 3 3 7 3 8 2 9 11 16 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 0 -1 -2 -3 -2 -1 0 -1 -2 0 2 SHEAR DIR 139 140 86 98 167 317 327 312 303 272 232 243 240 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.9 29.1 29.3 29.3 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 150 152 154 154 156 155 153 150 149 152 155 155 156 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 146 149 149 151 150 147 142 139 141 142 140 140 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 -53.0 -53.2 -52.8 -53.1 -52.9 -53.2 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 10 10 12 11 12 12 12 12 12 700-500 MB RH 63 62 61 62 62 64 61 61 60 58 57 56 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 5 6 6 8 7 8 850 MB ENV VOR 71 68 65 66 65 50 49 48 57 37 39 33 39 200 MB DIV 28 25 9 23 31 20 33 9 21 19 24 6 0 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 0 1 2 3 -1 1 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 392 412 444 469 389 224 129 77 -10 -6 71 -11 -44 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.5 14.7 15.0 15.2 16.0 16.9 17.7 18.4 19.0 19.4 19.9 20.3 LONG(DEG W) 60.5 61.3 62.0 62.9 63.7 65.6 67.6 69.4 71.1 72.7 74.1 75.3 76.3 STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 8 9 9 10 10 9 8 8 7 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 40 39 46 42 43 37 30 35 90 17 42 10 80 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 516 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 27. 31. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. 12. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 12. 20. 30. 37. 46. 51. 55. 55. 55. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972013 INVEST 09/03/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.4 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 42.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.5 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972013 INVEST 09/03/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972013 INVEST 09/03/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)