* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972013 09/02/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 33 37 45 55 63 70 74 77 79 79 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 33 37 45 55 63 70 54 57 45 40 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 32 40 49 60 71 55 64 53 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 7 4 4 5 4 5 5 4 8 8 12 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -2 -1 -1 -3 -3 -2 0 0 -3 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 106 132 133 83 77 266 334 304 323 261 258 234 227 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.9 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 150 152 152 154 155 157 154 150 150 153 156 157 159 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 146 146 148 149 153 148 143 142 144 144 144 143 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -53.4 -53.4 -53.2 -53.2 -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 10 11 700-500 MB RH 62 63 64 63 64 66 65 65 62 62 63 63 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 9 9 8 8 6 6 5 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 71 70 69 70 67 59 54 56 63 56 44 42 39 200 MB DIV 22 31 38 27 36 46 41 29 26 13 26 4 11 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 2 0 2 3 2 -2 3 -1 0 LAND (KM) 403 406 425 461 439 272 147 94 10 16 57 -13 5 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.5 14.6 14.9 15.1 15.7 16.6 17.3 18.2 18.8 19.5 20.0 20.5 LONG(DEG W) 60.0 60.8 61.5 62.3 63.1 65.0 67.1 69.0 71.0 72.8 74.5 75.9 77.2 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 8 9 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 47 11 43 44 43 44 33 29 7 51 44 97 84 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 27. 31. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 15. 15. 15. 15. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 12. 20. 30. 38. 45. 49. 52. 54. 54. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972013 INVEST 09/02/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.3 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 37.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 22.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.2 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972013 INVEST 09/02/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972013 INVEST 09/02/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED