* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972013 09/02/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 29 32 42 50 59 65 73 76 80 82 V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 29 32 42 50 59 65 51 51 55 57 V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 25 26 28 33 41 49 58 49 51 60 68 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 4 5 4 3 5 2 2 5 4 3 6 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 -1 -1 0 -1 -1 0 -2 0 0 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 145 98 139 141 91 173 288 249 317 213 255 199 212 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.0 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 148 150 151 152 153 155 155 152 150 151 154 155 157 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 143 144 146 146 150 150 145 142 141 142 142 142 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 -53.3 -53.5 -53.2 -53.4 -52.9 -53.2 -52.8 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 10 700-500 MB RH 60 61 63 64 64 64 66 64 62 61 60 62 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 6 4 4 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 58 62 64 65 67 62 55 65 58 70 55 58 51 200 MB DIV 22 20 19 29 29 43 23 38 0 16 9 18 -1 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 2 0 0 -1 0 LAND (KM) 425 417 422 453 488 319 177 118 43 -42 66 34 0 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.5 14.6 14.9 15.1 15.7 16.4 17.2 17.9 18.6 19.1 19.5 19.9 LONG(DEG W) 59.4 60.1 60.8 61.6 62.3 64.1 66.1 68.1 70.0 71.9 73.5 74.9 76.1 STM SPEED (KT) 4 7 8 8 8 10 10 10 10 9 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 42 48 25 42 45 42 35 31 29 91 50 44 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 513 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 11. 18. 23. 27. 31. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -5. -5. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 7. 17. 25. 34. 40. 48. 51. 55. 57. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972013 INVEST 09/02/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.5 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.9 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 40.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 27.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972013 INVEST 09/02/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972013 INVEST 09/02/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED