* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972013 09/02/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 41 46 57 67 78 86 89 96 99 101 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 41 46 57 67 78 86 89 96 99 101 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 33 36 40 49 63 78 94 106 114 115 113 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 7 5 7 7 6 7 4 6 3 3 2 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 0 -1 -2 0 -1 -1 -2 0 -2 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 132 132 100 82 113 83 130 69 109 322 148 258 207 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 149 151 150 152 152 154 155 153 154 152 155 158 161 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 145 144 145 146 149 150 149 149 146 147 147 148 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.8 -53.8 -53.4 -53.4 -53.7 -53.1 -53.3 -53.0 -53.2 -52.8 -53.1 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 11 700-500 MB RH 58 56 58 60 62 62 62 63 63 62 61 61 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 7 8 8 8 9 8 7 5 6 6 7 850 MB ENV VOR 33 31 40 52 63 62 66 63 75 65 56 42 46 200 MB DIV 69 41 15 14 20 3 43 26 35 17 27 8 12 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 0 -1 2 0 3 3 4 0 0 1 LAND (KM) 357 353 355 361 366 406 366 311 167 102 15 89 15 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.0 13.9 14.0 14.0 14.2 14.6 15.3 16.3 17.2 18.2 19.0 19.7 LONG(DEG W) 60.7 61.5 62.2 62.9 63.6 65.1 66.8 68.6 70.6 72.6 74.6 76.3 77.8 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 8 9 10 11 11 10 9 7 HEAT CONTENT 46 42 39 38 41 48 47 43 33 33 31 47 47 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 519 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 28. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 15. 16. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 7. 8. 7. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 16. 27. 37. 48. 56. 59. 66. 69. 71. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972013 INVEST 09/02/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.7 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 41.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 52.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.4 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972013 INVEST 09/02/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972013 INVEST 09/02/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED