* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972013 09/01/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 40 47 55 64 70 75 78 82 82 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 40 47 55 64 70 75 78 82 82 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 35 37 39 45 53 63 75 87 96 102 103 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 9 8 6 11 2 9 4 13 6 10 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 3 0 1 -3 0 -1 -2 -3 -3 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 224 188 193 175 163 165 167 155 130 140 213 198 237 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.9 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 151 153 153 154 153 150 147 148 148 151 150 ADJ. POT. INT. 150 145 146 149 148 150 148 146 144 145 144 146 144 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -53.3 -53.5 -53.1 -53.4 -53.1 -53.3 -53.0 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 12 12 11 11 11 10 11 10 11 11 12 12 700-500 MB RH 57 55 55 57 58 62 65 63 64 60 62 61 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 22 28 29 35 52 64 69 69 68 61 44 33 200 MB DIV 34 43 33 22 19 29 18 29 30 22 25 12 -3 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -5 -3 -2 -2 -2 1 0 2 4 1 0 LAND (KM) 425 419 422 400 378 368 282 228 237 279 161 76 234 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.6 14.5 14.3 14.1 13.9 13.7 14.0 14.6 15.5 16.4 17.3 17.9 LONG(DEG W) 60.5 61.5 62.4 63.3 64.2 65.8 67.5 69.2 71.3 73.5 75.8 78.2 80.5 STM SPEED (KT) 12 9 9 9 8 8 8 9 11 12 12 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 43 39 42 43 48 48 44 48 51 43 50 39 58 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 668 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 33.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 28. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -5. -6. -8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 17. 25. 34. 40. 45. 48. 52. 52. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972013 INVEST 09/01/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 33.9 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 43.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 44.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.7 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972013 INVEST 09/01/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972013 INVEST 09/01/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED