* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972013 09/01/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 41 49 61 68 75 83 91 94 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 41 49 61 68 75 83 91 80 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 28 30 36 43 54 67 81 96 108 99 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 2 5 11 7 10 6 7 4 6 3 2 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -3 -4 -3 -2 -3 0 -2 -2 -3 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 225 151 116 145 143 101 144 80 152 80 150 128 227 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.9 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 150 151 151 151 151 151 152 151 149 151 156 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 144 145 146 146 146 146 147 150 149 147 147 150 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.1 -53.8 -53.7 -53.9 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.1 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 11 12 10 11 10 11 11 12 12 700-500 MB RH 56 57 55 55 57 59 63 63 66 64 64 63 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 4 5 4 5 850 MB ENV VOR 23 25 28 29 32 47 50 57 69 53 55 46 31 200 MB DIV 31 32 42 32 23 14 14 22 33 31 17 35 6 700-850 TADV -1 0 -1 -2 -1 0 -1 0 2 2 0 -4 -2 LAND (KM) 460 398 355 327 321 277 277 280 248 276 234 143 -30 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.0 13.9 13.8 13.6 13.2 13.0 13.1 13.7 14.7 15.9 17.1 18.1 LONG(DEG W) 58.3 59.3 60.2 61.1 61.9 63.5 65.0 66.5 68.4 70.5 72.7 75.0 77.3 STM SPEED (KT) 12 9 9 8 8 8 7 8 10 12 13 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 33 41 46 48 43 39 36 38 46 57 36 46 118 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 683 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 27. 31. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 12. 13. 15. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 5. 5. 6. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 16. 24. 36. 43. 50. 58. 66. 69. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972013 INVEST 09/01/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.5 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.7 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 42.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 15.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972013 INVEST 09/01/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972013 INVEST 09/01/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)