* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972013 09/01/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 28 29 34 42 51 57 63 69 74 77 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 28 29 34 42 51 57 63 69 74 77 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 27 30 36 43 53 64 77 88 95 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 11 5 5 11 2 8 2 7 6 5 7 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -3 -3 -1 -4 -1 -1 -5 -4 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 239 240 215 175 183 159 162 160 158 175 181 245 223 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 146 145 147 148 149 151 152 154 155 154 154 154 157 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 140 141 142 144 145 147 149 151 151 151 149 150 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 -53.5 -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 -53.2 -53.3 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 10 11 10 12 12 13 700-500 MB RH 52 55 56 55 55 58 60 61 61 63 61 63 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 6 5 5 4 5 6 850 MB ENV VOR 23 20 20 24 26 37 55 59 61 54 50 42 23 200 MB DIV 25 33 31 37 31 4 22 5 21 17 12 4 7 700-850 TADV -5 -4 -1 -2 -3 -2 -2 0 1 2 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 644 570 509 463 434 411 400 407 358 293 111 45 91 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.0 14.9 14.8 14.7 14.4 14.3 14.2 14.7 15.5 16.6 17.6 18.8 LONG(DEG W) 56.9 57.9 58.9 59.8 60.7 62.3 63.9 65.4 67.2 69.2 71.4 73.7 75.8 STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 9 9 8 8 8 8 10 11 12 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 27 35 43 50 40 42 48 53 49 50 32 36 46 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 719 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 27. 31. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -6. -6. -7. -9. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -4. -4. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 4. 9. 17. 26. 32. 38. 44. 49. 52. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972013 INVEST 09/01/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.9 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.2 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 39.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 14.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972013 INVEST 09/01/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972013 INVEST 09/01/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)