* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972013 07/16/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 27 31 35 43 49 51 54 56 58 60 60 V (KT) LAND 20 23 27 31 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 25 25 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 14 18 15 9 22 17 27 21 23 9 10 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -1 -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1 -3 -1 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 356 304 328 360 352 324 326 326 312 311 310 4 24 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.6 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.5 27.9 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 149 144 142 142 143 144 145 145 143 135 118 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 136 132 128 126 125 125 124 123 122 122 116 102 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.2 -54.2 -54.3 -54.1 -53.7 -53.7 -53.2 -53.3 -53.0 -53.2 -52.8 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 10 10 11 12 12 11 12 11 12 10 9 700-500 MB RH 71 72 74 76 75 74 72 68 66 65 64 68 67 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 4 4 4 2 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 22 34 20 15 24 3 -3 0 34 24 30 3 200 MB DIV 31 63 37 4 31 31 33 15 1 24 3 49 2 700-850 TADV 3 4 0 3 7 14 7 15 8 0 3 0 1 LAND (KM) 274 219 153 75 -11 -198 -365 -475 -582 -578 -522 -424 -352 LAT (DEG N) 23.0 23.5 23.9 24.3 24.7 25.4 26.4 27.4 28.3 29.0 29.6 30.4 31.3 LONG(DEG W) 95.0 95.7 96.3 97.1 97.8 99.5 101.0 102.2 103.2 104.1 105.3 107.2 109.3 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 8 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 22 24 24 17 4 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 517 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 11. 19. 24. 29. 32. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 7. 4. 1. -3. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 23. 29. 31. 34. 36. 38. 40. 40. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972013 INVEST 07/16/13 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 83.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.4 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972013 INVEST 07/16/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)