* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972012 10/11/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 42 44 48 48 45 39 33 30 28 25 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 42 44 48 48 45 39 33 30 28 25 V (KT) LGE mod 30 34 37 40 41 42 42 41 39 36 33 32 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 23 20 27 29 29 39 36 47 34 36 35 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 2 4 4 -4 -1 -2 -4 -4 -3 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 257 255 236 219 221 209 225 240 251 250 245 238 231 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 154 153 153 153 155 159 158 158 156 153 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 129 129 128 128 129 131 139 142 140 136 130 131 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.5 -54.1 -53.9 -53.7 -53.7 -54.2 -54.0 -53.8 -53.8 -53.6 -53.5 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 9 10 11 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 45 44 44 44 43 42 43 40 44 44 46 48 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -6 4 14 7 19 9 0 -16 -32 -25 20 42 200 MB DIV 26 23 36 46 23 28 31 7 -10 -21 -37 2 1 700-850 TADV 0 1 3 3 4 -6 -4 0 -9 2 -4 0 -7 LAND (KM) 610 622 634 654 674 726 689 588 440 338 272 210 187 LAT (DEG N) 25.4 25.6 25.7 25.9 26.1 26.4 26.0 25.1 24.2 24.0 24.0 23.8 23.5 LONG(DEG W) 71.9 72.0 72.0 72.0 72.0 71.5 70.9 71.4 73.0 75.0 76.4 77.2 77.1 STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 1 2 2 3 3 6 9 8 5 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 41 39 37 35 34 34 36 46 52 62 101 111 106 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 5 CX,CY: 5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 612 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 16. 20. 24. 26. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 0. -7. -15. -21. -25. -27. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 8. 12. 14. 18. 18. 15. 9. 3. 0. -2. -5. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972012 INVEST 10/11/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 37.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 55.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972012 INVEST 10/11/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)