* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972012 10/11/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 37 40 40 37 31 25 22 20 17 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 37 40 40 37 31 25 22 20 17 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 30 30 31 30 29 28 25 23 22 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 24 25 28 35 31 40 42 44 41 41 43 47 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 0 2 2 1 -8 -3 -4 -2 -5 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 236 240 237 226 218 222 221 237 238 250 239 236 223 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 153 151 151 150 152 154 159 159 156 155 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 127 128 126 126 125 128 131 141 142 137 133 135 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.4 -54.4 -54.0 -53.7 -53.8 -54.1 -54.3 -53.9 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 8 9 10 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 45 44 43 41 43 43 40 44 43 45 46 43 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR -25 -14 -13 -4 2 7 10 -12 -5 -27 11 17 55 200 MB DIV 36 26 37 38 41 12 20 23 -19 -32 -28 -29 -8 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 1 0 0 -11 -7 -3 -5 -5 -5 -5 LAND (KM) 639 656 673 697 721 765 778 690 588 426 314 238 196 LAT (DEG N) 26.0 26.1 26.2 26.4 26.6 26.9 26.8 26.0 25.1 24.1 23.6 23.1 22.6 LONG(DEG W) 72.5 72.4 72.2 72.1 72.0 71.7 70.8 70.5 71.4 73.1 74.4 75.1 74.8 STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 2 2 3 4 4 8 8 5 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 31 32 33 32 32 32 31 38 51 57 56 27 65 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):140/ 4 CX,CY: 3/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 670 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 5. 1. -9. -17. -25. -29. -33. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 12. 15. 15. 12. 6. 0. -3. -5. -8. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972012 INVEST 10/11/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 32.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 37.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972012 INVEST 10/11/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)