* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972012 10/10/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 30 33 36 34 29 24 22 21 21 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 28 30 33 36 34 29 24 22 21 21 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 22 23 22 22 21 19 17 16 15 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 21 23 25 28 36 34 44 40 45 32 35 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -1 0 1 1 -7 -6 -2 0 0 -2 -5 SHEAR DIR 236 235 242 235 219 226 227 232 234 249 258 257 255 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 155 152 152 152 152 151 151 154 156 157 157 156 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 126 127 127 127 126 126 130 135 138 138 135 134 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.2 -54.3 -54.3 -54.1 -53.7 -54.0 -54.2 -54.2 -54.0 -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 9 9 10 11 11 12 700-500 MB RH 47 46 44 42 44 45 45 47 45 45 43 43 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 7 7 6 6 5 4 3 3 2 1 850 MB ENV VOR -34 -25 -13 -12 0 3 19 -2 -11 -31 -43 -19 -2 200 MB DIV 37 28 20 29 38 27 25 17 3 -25 -31 -21 -18 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 1 0 4 -6 -6 -2 -8 -1 -7 -4 LAND (KM) 621 633 645 662 678 721 766 722 633 518 414 349 274 LAT (DEG N) 25.7 25.8 25.9 26.1 26.2 26.6 26.8 26.3 25.5 24.8 24.5 24.2 23.8 LONG(DEG W) 72.3 72.3 72.2 72.2 72.1 72.0 71.5 71.0 71.3 72.6 74.2 75.3 76.0 STM SPEED (KT) 3 1 2 2 2 2 2 4 5 7 7 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 36 35 35 34 33 32 32 35 45 48 42 61 38 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):145/ 7 CX,CY: 4/ -5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 722 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 11. 18. 24. 29. 32. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 4. -5. -13. -22. -26. -29. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 10. 13. 16. 14. 9. 4. 2. 1. 1. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972012 INVEST 10/10/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 34.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 37.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972012 INVEST 10/10/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)