* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972012 10/09/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 28 34 37 33 27 21 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 25 28 34 37 33 27 21 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 22 23 23 21 19 17 16 16 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 20 18 21 25 25 36 49 67 69 77 86 83 56 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 1 2 0 2 -4 -6 -5 -7 -6 14 16 SHEAR DIR 266 247 228 237 238 222 213 216 229 229 238 244 212 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.1 27.4 26.6 25.9 24.2 15.8 15.2 9.8 POT. INT. (KT) 154 152 149 146 145 139 131 123 117 106 78 76 70 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 132 129 126 126 122 117 109 106 99 75 73 68 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.2 -54.4 -54.4 -54.4 -54.5 -55.0 -55.2 -55.6 -55.8 -55.2 -54.1 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 8 6 3 2 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 64 58 53 46 43 38 39 38 37 49 54 62 73 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -43 -30 -15 -18 -15 -13 -41 -62 -89 13 44 138 281 200 MB DIV 24 6 14 10 33 48 55 80 59 76 48 59 122 700-850 TADV 3 3 -1 2 -1 -2 -14 0 18 7 -67 -68 3 LAND (KM) 561 604 654 719 787 754 798 924 790 648 381 944 1304 LAT (DEG N) 26.3 26.9 27.5 28.1 28.6 30.1 32.2 34.5 37.0 40.6 45.6 51.1 56.4 LONG(DEG W) 74.5 74.0 73.5 72.9 72.3 70.7 68.2 65.1 61.7 56.3 48.4 40.4 36.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 8 8 9 12 16 18 23 33 38 33 29 HEAT CONTENT 27 29 30 30 30 26 24 5 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 678 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 11. 18. 23. 27. 29. 29. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 5. -5. -17. -29. -38. -47. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 15. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -13. -16. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 14. 17. 13. 7. 1. -4. -10. -15. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972012 INVEST 10/09/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 29.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 23.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972012 INVEST 10/09/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)