* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972012 10/09/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 20 21 22 26 29 29 23 19 18 17 DIS V (KT) LAND 20 19 20 21 22 26 29 29 23 19 18 17 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 18 18 17 17 18 18 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 20 16 18 21 22 24 30 47 55 55 66 83 79 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -2 4 2 0 2 0 -3 1 -2 10 29 SHEAR DIR 257 253 232 213 228 223 220 205 216 217 218 223 219 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.5 27.9 27.1 26.2 25.6 21.0 18.9 POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 152 150 150 148 144 137 127 120 117 91 85 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 135 132 130 129 127 125 120 112 108 111 87 80 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.3 -54.1 -54.0 -54.0 -53.9 -54.1 -54.1 -54.3 -55.0 -55.7 -55.1 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 4 2 1 0 700-500 MB RH 69 61 56 52 46 38 34 32 33 39 45 44 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 6 7 6 7 7 7 6 5 4 3 3 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -33 -43 -24 -11 -26 -19 -23 -22 -50 -36 -1 11 64 200 MB DIV 43 23 11 6 21 18 40 67 47 63 63 64 93 700-850 TADV 4 4 1 -2 1 -1 0 -8 -2 -8 -48 -186 -272 LAND (KM) 432 480 526 599 673 786 842 858 947 963 851 605 1120 LAT (DEG N) 25.5 26.1 26.7 27.0 27.2 28.0 29.1 30.7 32.7 35.0 38.0 42.1 46.8 LONG(DEG W) 75.9 75.4 74.8 74.1 73.3 72.2 70.6 68.6 66.2 63.3 57.7 49.0 38.0 STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 7 7 6 8 10 13 15 22 33 43 45 HEAT CONTENT 63 39 30 29 30 31 19 31 17 8 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 904 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 2.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 12. 19. 24. 28. 31. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 6. -1. -10. -19. -27. -36. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -12. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. -11. -10. -9. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 1. 2. 6. 9. 9. 3. -1. -2. -3. -4. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972012 INVEST 10/09/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 2.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 2.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 38.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972012 INVEST 10/09/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)