* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972012 10/09/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 20 22 23 29 32 35 30 23 17 15 DIS V (KT) LAND 20 19 20 22 23 29 32 35 30 23 17 15 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 19 18 17 18 18 19 19 18 16 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 20 19 17 20 24 26 35 49 59 65 72 79 83 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 -2 -3 1 0 2 -3 0 2 7 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 260 260 249 238 227 229 219 213 212 226 236 252 263 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.6 28.1 27.2 26.1 25.5 21.9 21.2 16.5 POT. INT. (KT) 156 155 152 151 149 146 140 130 119 116 94 91 78 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 136 133 132 130 128 125 118 109 107 88 85 74 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.3 -54.5 -54.4 -54.4 -54.6 -54.4 -54.8 -54.8 -54.9 -55.4 -56.1 -57.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 9 9 9 6 3 1 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 71 69 60 56 49 44 37 36 28 34 44 49 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 5 5 6 6 7 6 7 5 4 3 6 8 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -33 -37 -15 -1 -7 -11 -15 -56 -102 -127 -77 -62 200 MB DIV 81 57 29 25 27 23 53 56 73 40 41 48 41 700-850 TADV 6 7 4 3 -1 1 0 -30 -25 -5 43 86 113 LAND (KM) 415 485 492 549 615 777 759 843 923 833 638 901 1418 LAT (DEG N) 24.9 25.6 26.3 27.0 27.6 28.6 30.3 32.7 35.4 38.2 41.4 44.8 48.6 LONG(DEG W) 75.3 75.3 75.2 74.6 73.9 72.4 70.4 67.4 63.1 57.6 50.0 41.8 33.7 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 9 8 11 15 20 24 30 34 34 34 HEAT CONTENT 72 55 43 39 40 36 30 35 3 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 849 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 24. 28. 30. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 6. -1. -10. -21. -29. -37. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 7. 10. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 2. 3. 9. 12. 15. 10. 3. -3. -5. -12. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972012 INVEST 10/09/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 49.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 11.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972012 INVEST 10/09/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)