* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972012 10/08/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 34 38 42 42 40 33 27 20 DIS V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 34 38 42 42 40 33 27 20 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 30 31 32 31 28 24 20 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 18 17 22 17 17 32 37 46 63 68 69 73 69 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 -2 -2 1 0 -1 -4 0 6 6 4 SHEAR DIR 270 260 257 258 241 232 228 221 211 231 246 265 286 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.1 29.0 28.6 28.2 27.4 26.4 25.6 23.1 22.0 20.1 POT. INT. (KT) 158 156 156 152 151 145 141 132 123 117 100 93 85 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 138 137 133 131 127 124 120 115 110 94 86 79 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.1 -54.2 -54.4 -54.4 -54.4 -54.4 -54.8 -55.1 -55.2 -55.4 -56.0 -56.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 8 8 9 9 7 3 1 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 68 70 69 62 56 46 37 36 35 34 38 46 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 4 4 4 3 4 2 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -37 -27 -32 -29 -15 -9 -1 -32 -43 -120 -152 -174 -168 200 MB DIV 59 82 57 40 32 20 40 46 54 28 9 -10 4 700-850 TADV 6 5 7 4 4 2 -6 -13 -38 -20 6 22 37 LAND (KM) 390 453 502 514 524 689 698 730 909 866 730 1057 1561 LAT (DEG N) 24.3 25.0 25.7 26.5 27.2 28.5 30.0 32.1 35.0 37.8 40.6 42.5 43.4 LONG(DEG W) 74.3 74.7 75.1 75.0 74.8 73.3 71.7 69.1 64.4 57.9 49.7 41.1 33.7 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 10 13 20 27 32 34 30 27 HEAT CONTENT 58 58 51 41 43 35 28 24 7 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 754 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 27. 28. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 4. -3. -12. -22. -29. -36. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -11. -13. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 13. 17. 17. 15. 8. 2. -5. -13. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972012 INVEST 10/08/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 50.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972012 INVEST 10/08/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)