* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972012 10/08/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 32 35 40 45 46 44 41 37 36 33 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 32 35 40 45 46 44 41 37 36 33 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 29 32 35 37 38 35 31 28 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 17 17 16 15 20 26 38 47 54 48 51 59 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -2 -2 -2 -3 -1 0 1 -1 -3 0 -3 -8 SHEAR DIR 295 280 274 273 264 218 243 218 222 223 233 235 243 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.1 29.0 28.7 28.5 28.1 27.6 27.2 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 159 158 157 155 155 151 149 145 143 137 132 128 121 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 142 139 136 134 128 127 123 122 117 113 112 107 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.2 -54.0 -54.1 -54.2 -54.1 -54.3 -54.3 -54.5 -54.6 -55.4 -56.2 -57.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 8 6 5 5 3 700-500 MB RH 62 63 67 66 63 55 45 39 38 36 40 45 36 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 4 4 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -24 -32 -29 -34 -36 -16 -23 -15 -33 -56 -79 -49 -75 200 MB DIV 18 50 62 48 20 5 12 37 24 22 19 34 6 700-850 TADV 2 5 5 5 2 0 0 -4 -1 4 5 -16 -15 LAND (KM) 332 366 407 465 512 547 604 710 776 719 692 865 1133 LAT (DEG N) 23.2 23.9 24.5 25.1 25.7 26.6 27.3 28.1 28.9 30.2 31.7 32.8 33.2 LONG(DEG W) 73.2 73.8 74.4 74.7 74.9 74.6 74.0 73.0 72.1 71.1 69.9 67.1 63.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 7 6 6 5 5 6 7 8 11 14 16 HEAT CONTENT 62 61 60 57 52 40 39 45 34 27 17 16 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 636 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 28. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 1. -6. -14. -20. -25. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 8. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 15. 20. 21. 19. 16. 12. 11. 8. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972012 INVEST 10/08/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 58.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972012 INVEST 10/08/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)