* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972012 10/08/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 33 38 43 46 45 42 38 35 31 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 33 38 43 46 45 42 38 35 31 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 27 28 31 33 35 36 35 32 28 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 16 17 18 18 18 18 28 32 42 55 62 59 69 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -1 -1 0 -1 0 0 1 -5 -4 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 286 286 278 271 271 232 244 233 216 217 226 228 229 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.1 28.9 28.6 28.3 27.8 27.1 26.3 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 161 159 157 151 148 144 141 135 128 122 117 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 144 143 140 137 129 126 124 121 117 114 114 111 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.3 -54.0 -54.0 -54.3 -54.3 -54.5 -54.2 -54.3 -54.7 -55.3 -55.7 -56.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 10 9 9 9 10 10 9 6 4 4 2 700-500 MB RH 60 63 64 69 66 56 45 40 37 39 36 46 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -28 -25 -29 -21 -26 -19 -14 -6 -31 -46 -83 -62 -27 200 MB DIV 15 29 60 67 45 9 25 30 36 34 35 57 49 700-850 TADV 0 4 5 7 5 3 2 -1 -2 -5 4 -7 -36 LAND (KM) 334 359 383 449 513 575 663 754 771 763 861 955 967 LAT (DEG N) 23.1 23.7 24.2 24.9 25.6 26.7 27.4 28.4 29.5 31.0 32.9 35.1 37.7 LONG(DEG W) 73.0 73.6 74.2 74.5 74.7 74.3 73.4 72.6 71.2 69.6 67.1 63.1 55.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 7 7 6 5 6 7 9 12 17 27 34 HEAT CONTENT 64 61 60 57 51 37 40 44 25 23 16 4 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 11. 18. 22. 26. 29. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 5. 1. -6. -13. -21. -27. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 13. 18. 21. 20. 17. 13. 10. 6. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972012 INVEST 10/08/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 58.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 45.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972012 INVEST 10/08/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)