* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972012 10/07/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 32 38 43 46 46 46 47 49 53 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 32 38 43 46 46 46 41 39 43 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 30 33 35 37 39 35 35 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 17 18 18 16 18 18 26 26 35 31 29 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 -2 -2 -3 0 0 0 -2 -4 -2 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 297 276 278 283 279 271 235 241 233 252 277 288 325 SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 160 161 161 163 161 159 156 157 160 164 166 165 163 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 146 145 146 142 138 133 133 139 144 147 147 145 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.9 -53.8 -54.0 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -53.7 -53.9 -53.5 -53.5 -53.2 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 9 10 11 12 12 12 12 11 700-500 MB RH 57 60 60 63 63 63 56 48 42 34 34 30 31 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 5 5 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR -2 -7 -13 -13 -16 -22 -36 -37 -46 -33 -20 -7 1 200 MB DIV 3 3 20 18 45 21 -5 6 1 -14 -37 -36 -33 700-850 TADV 2 3 0 2 5 3 1 -3 -6 -10 -8 -7 -5 LAND (KM) 244 233 216 228 246 271 312 292 213 111 -15 9 29 LAT (DEG N) 22.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 72.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 6 4 2 3 5 5 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 71 67 66 44 57 84 82 87 75 105 0 117 124 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 765 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 27. 31. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 3. -1. -6. -10. -12. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 3. 5. 7. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 13. 18. 21. 21. 22. 22. 24. 28. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972012 INVEST 10/07/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 61.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 30.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972012 INVEST 10/07/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)